Scenario 4: Agreement within G20


Industrialized countries + China + India + Brazil, agreed to set up from 2020 an international market for emission permits. From 2020, China and India are allocated quota as 150% of their 2005 emissions, and Brazil 120%. For industrialized countries, quotas are equal to objectives consistent with their goals for 2050, the European Union deciding to -30% in 2020 given the participation of China, India and Brazil to the agreement. China, India and Brazil participate to the International carbon market. A restriction is imposed on the volume of permits they can sell during the first years (10% of their quotas), this restriction is gradually removed and trade is unlimited in 2030.

In order to evaluate the consequences of the failure of the COP-15 negociations on the long-term climate policies, the modeling of this scenario with TIAM also assumes the implementation of a World climate agreement after 2030 to satisfy a long-term climate constraint corresponding to a maximal long-term temperature increase of 2 degrees C.


Table 1: SAT warming average at several periods relative to pre-industrial

Please note that results below from GENIE are relative to 2005. In average, the temperature change relative to pre-industrial is 0.76 degrees higher.

Figure 1: Surface air temperature warming average in 2105 relative to 2005 (degrees Celcius). Source: GENIE-2 model
Figure 2: percentage of emulations (over a large set of different parameterisations of the GENIE model) that show an increase in precipitation



+ SAT warming average in 2105 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming standard deviation in 2105 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming average in 2050 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming average in 2030 relative to 2005

+ Probability of a precipitation increase (in %)

+ Global Climate parameters


+ Surplus in percentage of Household consumption

+ Emissions permits sale in Million Tons of Carbon per country until 2030

+ CO2 Price in euros per Ton of CO2 (2005 Euros)

+ Cost of the strategy: Net present value (NPV) of the cost of the strategy given as a % of the NPV of the GDP cumulated over the century: 2.6%


+ GHG emissions in Million Tons of Carbon per country until 2030

+ Emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O in GtC until 2105

Energy / Technology

+ Cumulative sequestrated carbon in geological sinks:  419 GtC

+ Primary energy (assuming FEQ=1 for non fossil energy) in EJ

+ Electricity generation in billions of kWh

+ Energy consumption by end-use sectors, including non-energy purposes in EJ


More detailed results in the Energy - Technology technical note.

Emissions per country

in MT of CO2-equivalent.

In this scenario, a commitment is found, within G20, to limit temperature growth below 2°C in 2100.


Surplus per country

in percentage of household consumption.

This policy has a  macro-economic impact in terms of variations of the surplus, expressed here as a proportion of household consumption.


SAT changes

(surface air temperature) average change in °C in 2105 compared to 2005.

Due to the assumption that, after 2030 a full cooperation occurs to reach the climate target, the concentration paths yield a long term temperature change which still looks acceptable. However, the overall cost is greater.