Scenario 2: Minimum agreement in OECD


Industrialized countries (except Russia) will fulfill their commitments in 2020 and set up, gradually from 2021, an international market for emission permits  to fulfill commitments consistent with the goals of industrialized countries for 2030. Russia and other countries are doing nothing until 2030.

In order to evaluate the consequences of the failure of the COP-15 negociations on the long-term climate policies, the modeling of this scenario with TIAM also assumes the implementation of a World climate agreement after 2030 to satisfy a long-term climate constraint corresponding to a maximal long-term temperature increase of 2 degrees C.


Table 1: SAT warming average at several periods relative to pre-industrial


Please note that results below from GENIE are relative to 2005. In average, the temperature change relative to pre-industrial is 0.76 degrees higher.

Figure 1: Surface air temperature warming average in 2105 relative to 2005 (degrees Celcius). Source: GENIE-2 model
Figure 2: percentage of emulations (over a large set of different parameterisations of the GENIE model) that show an increase in precipitation


+ SAT warming average in 2105 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming standard deviation in 2105 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming average in 2050 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming average in 2030 relative to 2005

+ Probability of a precipitation increase (in %)

+ Global Climate parameters


+ Surplus in percentage of Household consumption

+ Emissions permits sale in Million Tons of Carbon per country until 2030

+ CO2 Price in euros per Ton of CO2 (2005 Euros)

+ Cost of the strategy: Net present value (NPV) of the cost of the strategy given as a % of the NPV of the GDP cumulated over the century: 2.7%


+ GHG emissions in MC/Year per country until 2030

+ Emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O in GtC until 2105

Energy / Technology

+ Cumulative sequestrated carbon in geological sinks:  417 GtC

+ Primary energy (assuming FEQ=1 for non fossil energy) in EJ

+ Electricity generation in billions of kWh

+ Energy consumption by end-use sectors, including non-energy purposes in EJ


More detailed results in the Energy - Technology technical note.

Audio-visual presentation of this scenario

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Emissions per country

in MT of CO2-equivalent.

In this scenario, a commitment is found (limited to OECD members) to limit temperature growth below 2°C in 2100.


Surplus per country

in percentage of household consumption.

This policy has a  macro-economic impact in terms of variations of the surplus, expressed here as a proportion of household consumption.


SAT changes

(surface air temperature) average change in °C in 2105 compared to 2005.

Due to the assumption that, after 2030 a full cooperation occurs to reach the climate target, the concentration paths yield a long term temperature change which still looks acceptable. However, the overall cost is greater.