Scenario 3: Agreement in OECD+Russia

Context

Same as in scenario 2 except for the accession of Russia.

In order to evaluate the consequences of the failure of the COP-15 negociations on the long-term climate policies, the modeling of this scenario with TIAM also assumes the implementation of a World climate agreement after 2030 to satisfy a long-term climate constraint corresponding to a maximal long-term temperature increase of 2 degrees C.

Climate

Table: Change of three climate parameters in 2105 relative to 2005. Source: GENIE-1 model.

Please note that results below from GENIE are relative to 2005. In average, the temperature change relative to pre-industrial is 0.76 degrees higher.

Figure 1: Surface air temperature warming average in 2105 relative to 2005 (degrees Celcius). Source: GENIE-2 model
Figure 2: percentage of emulations (over a large set of different parameterisations of the GENIE model) that show an increase in precipitation

 

+ SAT warming average in 2105 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming standard deviation in 2105 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming average in 2050 relative to 2005

+ SAT warming average in 2030 relative to 2005

+ Probability of a precipitation increase (in %)

+ Global Climate parameters

Economy

+ Surplus in percentage of Household consumption

+ Emission permits sale in MtC/Year per country until 2030

+ CO2 Price in euros per Ton of CO2 (2005 Euros)

+ Cost of the strategy: Net present value (NPV) of the cost of the strategy given as a % of the NPV of the GDP cumulated over the century: 2.7%

Emissions

+ GHG emissions in Million Tons of Carbon per country until 2030

+ Emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O in GtC until 2105

Energy / Technology

+ Cumulative sequestrated carbon in geological sinks:  418 GtC

+ Primary energy (assuming FEQ=1 for non fossil energy) in EJ

+ Electricity generation in billions of kWh

+ Energy consumption by end-use sectors, including non-energy purposes in EJ

 

More detailed results in the Energy - Technology technical note.

Emissions per country

in MT of CO2-equivalent.

In this scenario, a commitment is found (limited to OECD members+Russia) to limit temperature growth below 2°C in 2100.

 

Surplus per country

in percentage of household consumption.

This policy has a  macro-economic impact in terms of variations of the surplus, expressed here as a proportion of household consumption.

 

SAT changes

(surface air temperature) average change in °C in 2105 compared to 2005.

Due to the assumption that, after 2030 a full cooperation occurs to reach the climate target, the concentration paths yield a long term temperature change which still looks acceptable. However, the overall cost is greater.