Proposed scenarios for the follow-up of COP15

Reminder of the project goals and approach

The objective of SynsCOP15 is to analyse the possible effects on climate, economies and energy systems of the international environmental agreements that will follow the Copenhagen accord. The approach adopted in this project involves:

  • A representation of the different possible agreements on the horizon 2030, consistent with the ongoing negotiations (pre and post Copenhagen), using the techno-economic models GEMINI-E3 and TIAM.
  • An evaluation of the long term consequences of these different agreements, assuming that there is a neccessity to limit around 2 oC the temperature increase in 2100, whatever the mid term agreement (2030) will be. The models used for that evaluation are TIAM and GENIE.
  • An analysis of burden sharing, for different regions of the world, after 2030.

Phase-II scenarios

The scenarios that we propose to analyse in Phase-II of the project are summarized in the Table shown below. They are then described in the following subsections. Indicated in red in this table are the crucial elements that have yet to be defined before running these scenarios.

Targets 2020-2030 by regions (Copenhagen accord)

Policy scenarios 2005-2030

Policy scenarios are defined for the period 2005-2030. From 2030 on a total cooperation between all countries is assumed to take place in order to reach the long term climatic goal imposed in 2100.

Our aim is to analyse in depth the consequences of the proposals of abatement made in the Copenhagen accord. To do that one proposes:

  • Two series of regional targets (scenarios 1 and 2);
  • Two options for an international emissions trading scheme (ETS1, ETS2);
  • Two options for CDM (MDP in French) Clean Development Mechanism (MDP1, MDP2).

National targets 2020-2030

Scenario-1: Implementation of targets announced in Copenhagen.

All the declarations made by the countries present in the accord are considered as commitments and are thus taken into consideration:

  • All the targets announced by industrialized countries are considered as hard constraints;
  • For developing countries, there are no constraints related to future goals. The reductions in carbon intensity are voluntary targets that are easily reachable. In TIAM simulations these objectives are already reached in the reference scenario for China and India.

Scenario-2:International agreement with commitment for all countries

Here we assume that more severe and limiting emission targets are proposed to developing countries, with possibly more restriction on industrialized countries (e.g. 30% abatement for EU since DCs are now participating). This scenario is not completely defined yet.

International emissions trading scheme for countries with emission caps

  • Start date: 2020
  • Members: only the countries that have announced emission limits (caps). As a consequence in scenario-1 China, India and other developing countries are excluded; in scenario-2 all countries participate in the ETS from the date when their abatement commitment starts,
  • Emissions considered: all.[1]
  • Option ETS1: no restriction.
  • Option ETS2: A maximum of 50% of the abatement announced by participating countries [2] can be represented by quotas bought on the ETS (Supplementarity principle).

Clean development mechanism (CDM/MDP)

  • Starting date: 2010, since this market exists already.
  • Who is participating: All the countries with binding commitment can buy these quotas; all countries without commitment can sell quotas. As a consequence, in scenario-2 the countries without commitment start selling on this market and switch to the international ETS when they have a binding target.
  • Option MDP1: no limit.
  • Option MDP-2: Maximum of 25% of announced abatement for industrialized countries [3] can be constituted of quotas sold by countries without binding emission goals.

[1] The ETS implemented in EU does not cover all emission types. The ETS used in these scenarios does. It correspond to an ideal situation whereas the policies used for the sectors not covered by the ETS are in perfect agreement with the CO2 price observed on the ETS.

[2] Abatements to effectuate: difference between the maximal level fixed for 2020 and the emissions of the reference year. This abatement is well defined for each country with a binding goal.

[3] See definition above.

 

Long term climatic goals (2100) and scenarios post-2030

These targets are fixed for 2100. The emissions over the period 2005-2030 are fixed in accordance with the scenarios described above. All countries cooperate after 2030 to reach efficiently the long term goal. This assumes an international emissions permit market open to all, starting in 2030.

Targets: 1.5oC, 2.0oC, 2.5oC.