Scenario 4: Agreement within G20

Context

Industrialized countries + China + India + Brazil, agreed to set up from 2020 an international market for emission permits. From 2020, China and India are allocated quota as 150% of their 2005 emissions, and Brazil 120%. For industrialized countries, quotas are equal to objectives consistent with their goals for 2050, the European Union deciding to -30% in 2020 given the participation of China, India and Brazil to the agreement. China, India and Brazil participate to the International carbon market. A restriction is imposed on the volume of permits they can sell during the first years (10% of their quotas), this restriction is gradually removed and trade is unlimited in 2030.

In order to evaluate the consequences of the failure of the COP-15 negociations on the long-term climate policies, the modeling of this scenario with TIAM also assumes the implementation of a World climate agreement after 2030 to satisfy a long-term climate constraint corresponding to a maximal long-term temperature increase of 2 degrees C.

Economy

+ Surplus in percentage of Household consumption

+ Emissions permits sale in Million Tons of Carbon per country until 2030

+ CO2 Price in euros per Ton of CO2 (2005 Euros)

+ Cost of the strategy: Net present value (NPV) of the cost of the strategy given as a % of the NPV of the GDP cumulated over the century: 2.6%

Emissions

+ GHG emissions in Million Tons of Carbon per country until 2030

+ Emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O in GtC until 2105

Energy / Technology

+ Cumulative sequestrated carbon in geological sinks:  419 GtC

+ Primary energy (assuming FEQ=1 for non fossil energy) in EJ

+ Electricity generation in billions of kWh

+ Energy consumption by end-use sectors, including non-energy purposes in EJ

 

More detailed results in the Energy - Technology technical note.

Climate

The patterns of expected change are broadly similar to those predicted for baseline emissions, but at lower amplitude.

The global warming in 2105 is equal to 2.13 degrees relative to pre-industrial (i.e. 1.37 degrees relative to 2005).

 

WARNING: Note that GENIE results reported below are measured relative to 2005.

 

Table: Change of three climate parameters in 2105 relative to 2005. Source: GENIE-1 model.
Figure 1: Surface air temperature warming average in 2105 relative to 2005 (degrees Celcius). Source: GENIE-2 model
Figure 2: Surface air temperature warming standard deviation in 2105 relative to 2005 (degrees Celcius). Source: GENIE-2 model

Emissions per country

in MT of CO2-equivalent.

In this scenario, a commitment is found, within G20, to limit temperature growth below 2°C in 2100.

 

Surplus per country

in percentage of household consumption.

This policy has a  macro-economic impact in terms of variations of the surplus, expressed here as a proportion of household consumption.

 

SAT changes

(surface air temperature) average change in °C in 2105 compared to 2005.

Due to the assumption that, after 2030 a full cooperation occurs to reach the climate target, the concentration paths yield a long term temperature change which still looks acceptable. However, the overall cost is greater.